My game

What makes a great tournament player? I've heard so many different theories, I'm starting to think that there's no legitimately correct way. Some people like to make it purely a mathematical endeavor. Others prefer to play by instinct, feeling out their opponent's weaknesses as the game progresses. And then there's Doyle Brunson. He talks a lot about playing extremely agressive, betting hard at any pot you think you might have a chance at picking up. All of these "small" pots will give you significant edge later on if you should choose to get into an all-in situation against someone. If all the pot thievery worked out previously, then this is essentially a freeroll.

So. I've been analyzing my play a lot during these last few months, and though I'm fairly tight-aggressive, I think I tend to give my opponents way too much credit. I credit myself as a good player. Not great, yet. But definitely dangerous at a table. The problems with my game tend to revolve around post-flop betting. Not my betting, but my opponents.

Example:

.25-.50 NL
I'm in LP with AKs. All fold to a pothead LAG (He's a pretty good player when he's sober, but after a couple bowls his skill drops like a rock), who raises from $.50 to $1.50. I think for a bit and re-raise to $9.00. He hems and haws, then calls.

Flop is 2s 4s 5d.

He is completely still for a moment, then fires out a $50 bet. This well over twice the current pot.

Now, in this situation, there's only a couple of possible conclusions that I can come to.

1) He's on a straight of flush draw of some kind, more likely a straight draw.
2) He hit a set.
3) He stayed in with trash (completely possible with this player) and hit the nuts on the flop.
4) He's completely full of shit and just wants to buy the pot.

These are all obvious possibilities. The problem I have is that I generally tend to believe that he's got top set, or the nut straight. Now, in this situation, he just priced me off the pot with that bet. I don't have the odds to call, so it would be correct to muck.

However, some of you might also be thinking that this is a very suspicious bet, and you'd be right. 2x the pot? He's trying to buy it! Put him all in! Your A high is good! Yeah, yeah, yeah. In this particular example (which probably makes it a bad example), the player I chose to portray as my rival is a very very aggro player most of the time. He has no problem buying in 10 times so he can hit that one lucky streak and make it all back. In short, the perfect enemy.

Basically, I think the point I'm trying to make is that sometimes the bet overwhelms my ability to play my A game. If I make a read, but it's going to potentially cost my entire stack to see it, I'm not sure I can always make that call. But then again, why the fuck am I sitting at a no limit table if I'm not willing to make those choices now and then?

[For the curious, I did not lay this hand down. I put him on a flush draw (lower than my flush draw, since I had AK spades) and I was right. He had J7s. Neither of us hit and I scooped a $180 pot with A high.]

To be continued... maybe.